Daily Pattern Recognition Forecast

Posted: February 6th, 2011 | Author: Mike Korell | Filed under: One-Day Market Map | No Comments »

Sector Trades for week of Dec13, 2010

Posted: December 14th, 2010 | Author: Mike Korell | Filed under: One-Day Market Map | No Comments »

These two trades are based on the BetaP sector trading data. The symbols are the Profunds sector funds I used to train the algorithm.

NDX (UOPIX)
Short Monday and Tuesday
Long Wednesday, Thursday, and Friday

Precious Metals (PMPIX)
Long Monday, Tuesday, Wednesday
Short Thursday and Friday

Sectors

Posted: November 28th, 2010 | Author: Mike Korell | Filed under: One-Day Market Map | No Comments »

Sectors on Monday
I decided to take a look at other sectors and how well they matched up to the BetaP data. I have always figured that the larger the market, the better would be the fit…. Not so true as I found out!

If a market is manipulated to any degree, that causes the relationship between the cause and effect to be skewed a bit. The S&P gets shoved around quite a bit actually. Small caps to a smaller degree. For example, the S&P has a Rho of .68 for the last month while the small caps have a Rho of .78. The correlation is obviously much higher.

Here is where it gets interesting… The best Correlation Coefficient I found was a .94 for oil and gas sector.

If I stick to Profunds sectors which are leveraged and have inverted versions, the sector choices for Monday are:

UKPIX - Ultra-short Japan
REPIX - Ultra Real Estate

Unfortunately, the BetaP shows OIl and Gas as flat on Monday.

Other high correlations include the US Dollar (which has no leveraged version at Profunds) and Treasury bond rates (once again, no leverage).

While I did not test all the funds, I thought I would mention the worst fit… the international fund. It had a Rho of a meager .62. If you think about it, thats not much worse than the S&P 500.

Forecast Commentary

Posted: November 21st, 2010 | Author: Mike Korell | Filed under: One-Day Market Map | No Comments »

Forecast commentary Nov11

Posted: November 11th, 2010 | Author: Mike Korell | Filed under: One-Day Market Map | No Comments »

Long-term outlook

Posted: October 17th, 2010 | Author: Mike Korell | Filed under: One-Day Market Map | No Comments »

I personally trade in several time frames. One of these is quarterly. In order to do this I create a forecast which extends out six months. During the last year these forecasts have been quite good. I began sharing these on this thread at end of August, and the results have been accurate.

The fourth quarter of 2010 should continue higher into December 24 at a high in the area of 1300.

The first quarter of 2011 shows to trade lower at least into March. There could be some recovery at that time, but I have a couple months to prepare for that trade.

In the near-term, we are approaching a consolidation which is aptly timed to late October which is well known for sharp selloffs. At this time I only expect this move lower to be 15 to 20 SPX points, although more could develop. A five wave move higher will follow into December.